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U.S.-Israel tensions bubble up as Iran talks progress
As nuclear talks in Vienna enter a critical stage, the gaps and suspicions over Iran between the Israeli government and the Biden administration are growing.
Why it matters: Both sides want to avoid the kind of public fight that emerged during the negotiations over the 2015 deal. But in private, there's growing frustration on both sides about the lack of trust, coordination and transparency.
Driving the news: In between the first and second round of nuclear talks — which the U.S. hopes will lead to a restoration of the deal and Israel hopes will fail — an apparent act of Israeli sabotage led to an explosion at Iran's Natanz nuclear facility.
- Two days later, senior U.S. and Israeli officials met for a second round of strategic talks on Iran.
Behind the scenes: According to two Israeli officials involved in the talks, Israeli national security adviser Meir Ben-Shabbat raised concerns that the U.S. was not showing sufficient consideration of the Israeli government’s positions during its Iran diplomacy, Israeli officials tell me.
- The U.S. side raised concerns of its own that Israel was engaging in military and intelligence operations against Iran without fully informing Washington, the Israeli officials say.
- The Israelis stressed their right and duty to defend Israel against Iran. Israeli officials tell me they had notified the U.S. in advance of recent operations. "It was not a surprise for the Americans," one Israeli official told me.
- On the one hand: The Israelis claim that the Biden administration hasn't been fully transparent with them on the proposals it is making in Vienna — for example, on the non-nuclear sanctions the U.S. would consider lifting, per a senior Israeli official.
On the other: A senior Biden administration official pushed back on those claims, stressing that senior U.S. and Israeli officials have been engaged in close consultations on an ongoing basis. “The U.S. and Israel will maintain this close and candid dialogue going forward," the U.S. official said.
- The Israeli Prime Minister’s office declined to discuss their talks with the Biden administration.
What’s next: Senior Israeli national security officials will descend on Washington next week for talks on Iran. They include Meir Ben-Shabbat, Israel Defense Forces chief of staff Aviv Kochavi, Military intelligence chief Tamir Hayman and Mossad director Yossi Cohen.
- Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will convene a meeting on Thursday with those officials as well as Minister of Defense Benny Gantz and Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi to discuss the policies to be presented in Washington.
- A senior Netanyahu aide told me the size of the gap with the U.S. will only be clear after the face to face meetings next week. “We don’t think it is a done deal and as long as we have a chance to give our input, we are going to give it a try, hoping it makes a difference."
The Next Astronauts Part I: A Few Ordinary People
In part one of How it Happened: The Next Astronauts, Axios space reporter Miriam Kramer traces how a multi-day orbital mission to space without professional astronauts came together in just a matter of weeks.
- Kramer takes listeners back to February of 2021, to a press call where SpaceX CEO Elon Musk made a stunning announcement.
- She brings listeners into her conversations with billionaire benefactor and commander Jared Isaacman to learn how he chartered and designed the mission.
- She chronicles how the other three crew members were selected — one by raffle, one by contest and one as an ambassador for her employer — and how they felt watching the last crewed launch before their own.
Subscribe to the Axios Space newsletter for more of Miriam Kramer's reporting.
Credits: The Next Astronauts is reported and produced by Miriam Kramer, Amy Pedulla, Naomi Shavin, and Alice Wilder. Dan Bobkoff is Executive Producer. Mixing, sound design, and music supervision by Alex Sugiura. Theme music and original score by Michael Hanf. Fact-checking and research by Jacob Knutson. Alison Snyder is a managing editor at Axios and Sara Kehaulani Goo is Executive Editor. Special thanks to Axios co-founders Mike Allen, Jim VandeHei and Roy Schwartz.
Goldman Sachs estimates 750K households face eviction after moratorium ends
A new report from Goldman Sachs released Sunday estimates that about 750,000 households could face eviction later this year unless Congress acts or rental assistance funds are more quickly distributed.
Why it matters: The Supreme Court blocked President Biden's eviction moratorium last week, dealing a major blow to the administration's hopes of preventing vulnerable Americans from losing housing during the pandemic.
The big picture: Roughly 2.5 million to 3.5 million American households are behind on their rent, according to the Goldman report. They owe landlords between $12 billion and $17 billion.
- Many state-level eviction restrictions are set to expire over the next month, according to the report.
- Mass evictions will take place unless Congress acts or federal Emergency Rental Assistance funds are distributed more quickly, the report said.
What to watch: According to the report, evictions are likely to be "particularly pronounced in the cities hardest hit" by COVID-19 because they have stronger apartment rental markets.
- The eviction of 750,000 households could also create a "small drag" on spending and job growth, the report said.
Our thought bubble, via Axios' Felix Salmon: Evictions nationwide remain low compared to pre-pandemic levels of about 1 million per year. Federal Emergency Rental Assistance funding, in theory, could prevent a late-2021 spike in evictions, but it's being distributed very slowly by the states. In practice, it's likely to arrive too late for hundreds of thousands of households.
Unpacking the role of climate change in Hurricane Ida's explosive intensification
Hurricane Ida jumped from a 105-mph Category Two hurricane on Saturday to a high-end Category 4 monster by Sunday morning, in a feat enabled by climate change, seasonal timing and a dose of bad luck.
Why it matters: Understanding how Mother Nature's most powerful storms are changing is key to learning how to better protect coastal communities around the world — everywhere from the mega-cities of Southeast Asia to the small towns of the Louisiana Bayou.
Driving the news: The explosive intensification of Hurricane Ida shortly before landfall was a nightmare situation. Social media was inundated with expressions of anxiety and dread, as it was too late for anyone in harm's way to flee from what they may have thought was going to be a weaker storm.
- That the storm rapidly intensified was not a surprise to hurricane forecasters, who had been predicting this since the storm moved off the coast of Cuba on Friday.
- But even the most bullish forecast did not call for the rate or peak of intensification that ended up occurring.
By the numbers: One key measure of storm intensity is the minimum central air pressure. In this case, the pressure dropped by a whopping 41 millibars in just 14 hours, between 5 p.m. ET Saturday and 7 a.m ET Sunday — and 52 millibars in 24 hours, starting from 8 a.m. ET Saturday.
- During the 24-hour period, winds shot upwards by 65 mph, exceeding the National Hurricane Center's definition of rapid intensification, which is when a storm's maximum sustained winds increase by 35 mph in 24 hours.
- In keeping with another suspicious trend, Ida also intensified all the way to the coast in the northern Gulf of Mexico, something that was virtually unheard of before 2018, yet has seemingly become routine.
The intrigue ... Hurricane Ida's explosive intensification was due to three main factors, with climate change mainly affecting the first two — and most decisive — of these three:
- An ample supply of bathtub-like warm water, with the warmth extending deep into the water column. This was heightened by the presence of the Gulf of Mexico loop current, which supercharged Hurricane Katrina 16 years ago to the day, and the timing: Gulf temperatures tend to be at their hottest at this time of year.
- Abundant moisture in the atmosphere, since dry air can get entrained into storms and disrupt their intensification process.
- A lack of wind shear or any other atmospheric factor that could stifle the storm's towering thunderstorms from organizing and forming a concentric ring around the eye.
How it works: Hurricanes are heat engines, feasting off warm, tropical waters.
- The vast majority of extra heat going into the climate system from burning fossil fuels is being absorbed by the oceans, and the seas are warming as a result.
- So, too, are air temperatures. Physics, specifically the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship, tells us that for every 1°C (1.8°F) of temperature increase, there is about a 7% increase in the water holding capacity of the atmosphere.
- These two trends are causing hurricanes and tropical storms to dump more water, on average, than they used to, and for there to be a greater proportion of high-end Category 3, 4 and 5 hurricanes in some ocean basins.
Context: Sufficient studies have been published on these trends in peer-reviewed journals that the recent UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report included some changes to the role of climate change in tropical cyclones as an area of increased scientific confidence.
- For example, a 2019 study in the journal Nature found there had been a trend in the Atlantic Ocean toward more rapidly intensifying storms between 1982 and 2009, and computer modeling showed that such a trend would not have been likely without human-induced climate change.
- A 2020 study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences found that tropical cyclones are more likely to reach higher categories across much of the globe, including the Atlantic.
- And an especially ominous 2017 study published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society found that a storm that intensifies by 70 mph in the 24 hours before landfall, which occurs about once every century today, could occur as frequently as every five to 10 years by the end of this century.
The bottom line: In the end, the fact that this storm hit Port Fourchon, Louisiana, also comes with a dose of bad luck and bitter irony.
- Bad luck, since the direct hit makes the state the first to ever see back-to-back years with hurricanes that made landfall with sustained winds of 150 mph or greater, according to meteorologist Steve Bowen, head of catastrophe insight at Aon.
- And irony, because the landfall location, Port Fourchon, is home to critical facilities for operating deepwater oil and gas drilling rigs in the Gulf of Mexico. More than 1.5 million barrels of crude oil per day are transported via pipelines and through the port. Yet it's the burning of fossil fuels that helped make this storm so strong, and so badly damaged the port.
Go deeper ... In photos: Hurricane Ida pummels Louisiana