28 April 2021
The price of corn is surging at a record pace. Prices have risen by 16% so far this month, the largest monthly gain since May 2019, and have risen every month since July, unleashing a 43.7% gain so far this year, per FactSet.
Why it matters: As commodities like lumber and copper see prices sky higher and global food prices continue to soar, the price of corn is especially important because it is a major input for everything from gasoline to meat to industrial products like wallboard and insulation used in houses.
What's happening: While economists aren't yet ready to declare an "agricultural supercycle," (akin to the commodities supercycle seen in the early 2000s) the huge gains in ag products are largely a result of unprecedented demand from China where pig herds have been decimated by an outbreak of swine fever.
- Major corn and soy producers like Brazil and Argentina have been experiencing labor shortages as a result of the coronavirus pandemic and unseasonably bad weather has hurt crop yields, resulting in a shortage of supply at precisely the same time as the spike in demand.
The big picture: If American crops aren't able to fill the void, prices could well jump further out of control, Shelby Myers, an economist at the American Farm Bureau, tells Axios.
- U.S. farmers are in a prime position to benefit from the situation but cold weather in the Midwest that has been followed by drought conditions is making planting an uncertain proposition.
Yes, but: "Right now what we’re seeing is just a market reaction," Myers says.
- "Farms are at the beginning of the cycle, so the further down you get through the food supply chain other parties will have to adjust... [Price increases are] not necessarily something that will be seen immediately."
Yes, but, but: The market is clearly reacting and so are consumers. Ten-year inflation expectations rose above 2.4% Tuesday, the highest since April 2013.
- Treasury yields also rose across the curve, with the benchmark 10-year rate climbing to 1.63%, reversing a trend of consolidation seen in recent weeks.
Further, the list of companies that are raising prices as a result of higher commodity costs continues to grow.
- Both Hasbro and Mattel warned Tuesday that they may raise prices for toys and games as a result of higher costs for resin packaging material plus increased ocean freight costs amid the global shipping bottleneck, as Axios' Kate Marino reported.
The bottom line: "In short," Myers says "there’s just a lot of uncertainty and it’s only April."
Data: FactSet; Chart: Axios Visuals
What to watch: Things also could improve for farmers despite the bad weather so far this year. As of this week, Myers says that only about 17% of this year's corn crop has been planted, 12% of the cotton crop, 8% of soybeans and 28% of spring wheat.
- "The neat thing about our economic food system is we can shift and stabilize to prevent giant spikes in food prices," she says.
Transcripts show George Floyd told police "I can't breathe" over 20 times
Section2Newly released transcripts of bodycam footage from the Minneapolis Police Department show that George Floyd told officers he could not breathe more than 20 times in the moments leading up to his death.
Why it matters: Floyd's killing sparked a national wave of Black Lives Matter protests and an ongoing reckoning over systemic racism in the United States. The transcripts "offer one the most thorough and dramatic accounts" before Floyd's death, The New York Times writes.
The state of play: The transcripts were released as former officer Thomas Lane seeks to have the charges that he aided in Floyd's death thrown out in court, per the Times. He is one of four officers who have been charged.
- The filings also include a 60-page transcript of an interview with Lane. He said he "felt maybe that something was going on" when asked if he believed that Floyd was having a medical emergency at the time.
What the transcripts say:
- Floyd told the officers he was claustrophobic as they tried to get him into the squad car.
- The transcripts also show Floyd saying, "Momma, I love you. Tell my kids I love them. I'm dead."
- Former officer Derek Chauvin, who had his knee on Floyd's neck for over eight minutes, told Floyd, "Then stop talking, stop yelling, it takes a heck of a lot of oxygen to talk."
Read the transcripts via DocumentCloud.