28 July 2021
Data: Axios-Ipsos Poll; Chart: Sara Wise/Axios
The most hardcore opponents of coronavirus vaccination — the group who say they'll never get one — tend to be older, whiter and more Republican than the unvaccinated Americans who are still persuadable, according to an analysis of our Axios/Ipsos Coronavirus Index.
Why it matters: As the Delta variant triggers more COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths, mostly among the unvaccinated, the Biden administration and even some high-profile GOP political and media figures are trying to figure out how to nudge the country's vaccination rate higher.
How it works: We examined data from the five most recent waves of our national survey, from May through last week, comprising 5,232 U.S. adults.
- Seven in 10 respondents said they'd taken the vaccine. The group we wanted to understand was the remaining 30%.
- Just under one-fourth of the unvaccinated said they're very or somewhat likely to take the shots, but haven't yet. About the same share said they're not likely to do it but haven't ruled it out.
- The rest — a little more than half of all unvaccinated respondents — said they're not at all likely to get vaccinated.
The big picture: Roughly half of the people in the most persuadable group are Black or Hispanic, whereas the most resistant group is overwhelmingly white. The dug-in opponents also identify more solidly as Republican, and are disproportionately concentrated in the South.
Between the lines: Two additional themes unite those most resistant to being vaccinated.
- They're most likely to say they don't consume traditional mainstream news, and they're most likely to distrust authority figures or institutions, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, President Biden and state governments.
What we're watching: Parents with children at home were disproportionately likely to resist taking the vaccine themselves — a potential complication to efforts to increase child vaccination rates.
- They comprised just 18% of the vaccinated respondents — but 23% of those saying they're likely to get vaccinated, 29% of those saying they're unlikely to and 31% of those saying they're not at all likely to do it.
What they're saying: "There's three different groups that will require at least three different types of outreach," said pollster Chris Jackson, senior vice president for Ipsos Public Affairs.
- "The group that still says they're willing to get the vaccine but hasn't gotten it, it appears that is more about access to the vaccine. It's not necessarily convincing them they should; it's convincing them how they can.
- "The second group, the one that's not very likely to get the vaccine but is not necessarily the hard-pass, they're skeptical they need it," Jackson said. "That's where the persuasion effort needs to be focused. They're potentially the ones where requirements might be more effective to get them vaccinated.
- "And then the last group, there's a wide variety of reasons that people give, but it appears that their opposition to getting the vaccine is substantially ideological or has to do with their self-identity," Jackson said. "It's really hard for an outsider to convince someone to change their ideological stances. So really the only way that's going to be effective to move these people if people who are seen to be part of this group drive the movement to get this vaccine."
Methodology: This data comes from five waves of the Axios/Ipsos Poll conducted between May 7 and July 19 by Ipsos' KnowledgePanel®. These findings are based on cumulative nationally representative probability sample of 5,271 general population adults age 18 or older.
- The margin of sampling error is ±1.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults.
- Vaccinated (n=3702), ±1.8; Likely to get the vaccine (n=350) ±5.3; not very likely to get the vaccine (n=352) ±5.3; not at all likely to get the vaccine (n=830) ±3.5
Transcripts show George Floyd told police "I can't breathe" over 20 times
Section2Newly released transcripts of bodycam footage from the Minneapolis Police Department show that George Floyd told officers he could not breathe more than 20 times in the moments leading up to his death.
Why it matters: Floyd's killing sparked a national wave of Black Lives Matter protests and an ongoing reckoning over systemic racism in the United States. The transcripts "offer one the most thorough and dramatic accounts" before Floyd's death, The New York Times writes.
The state of play: The transcripts were released as former officer Thomas Lane seeks to have the charges that he aided in Floyd's death thrown out in court, per the Times. He is one of four officers who have been charged.
- The filings also include a 60-page transcript of an interview with Lane. He said he "felt maybe that something was going on" when asked if he believed that Floyd was having a medical emergency at the time.
What the transcripts say:
- Floyd told the officers he was claustrophobic as they tried to get him into the squad car.
- The transcripts also show Floyd saying, "Momma, I love you. Tell my kids I love them. I'm dead."
- Former officer Derek Chauvin, who had his knee on Floyd's neck for over eight minutes, told Floyd, "Then stop talking, stop yelling, it takes a heck of a lot of oxygen to talk."
Read the transcripts via DocumentCloud.